It is a good time to be Kemi Badenoch.
Serious as the subject is, the leader of the Conservatives is clearly enjoying taking on Rachel Reeves over alleged fudged numbers and broken promises in the wake of the Budget.
At a particularly punchy news conference in the City on Monday morning, Badenoch hit out hard at the “false information” the chancellor had appeared to give “deliberately” in order to allow her Budget a “soft landing” – a deeply sobering charge that has seen Badenoch’s party call for the UK’s financial regulator to investigate “possible market abuse” by people working in the Treasury and Downing Street in the run-up to the Budget. “If a chief executive had done this, they’d have been sacked,” Badenoch said.
As usual, she has a point – which is not something you can say of the woman in her sights. Walking past the saccharine paint-by-numbers art of the traditional screevers along Hyde Park this weekend reminded me of our chancellor’s weaker waffle in the lead-up to her Budget.
Despite months of chaos, Reeves stood and moralised to a nation, asking them to think of the “poor children” as she imposed £26bn of tax rises on hardworking families, many of whom are skirting just above poverty.
Contrast that with Kemi’s blistering and bombastic riposte at the despatch box last Wednesday, which was both strikingly effective and proof that she has finally found her footing.
“A smorgasbord of misery” was one corker, but it was “a Budget for Benefits Street, paid for by working people” that really stuck. And when she turned to her MPs with the rallying cry, “What have we got? Welfare spending – up! Universal credit claimants – up! Debt interest – up! Inflation – up! Growth – down! Business confidence – down!”, you knew this moment had been expertly orchestrated to dominate social media clicks.
There may be those of you who hate this level of hyperbolic rhetoric, consider it childish, and view Badenoch’s theatrics as a demonstration of the worst of Westminster, but hyperbole exists in politics for a reason – to achieve cut-through. It is no coincidence that Reform UK has slipped back in the polls, with a new poll for The i Paper suggesting that the party’s lead over the Conservatives is shrinking.
The Tories have gained three points to hit their highest poll rating since March, which pollsters said could represent the “first shoots of recovery”.
And it is why you hear critics of this government – including many Labour stalwarts, such as Ed Balls – consistently questioning Keir Starmer’s narrative and direction. Without a clear strategic vision shaped into a story voters can align with, delivered through concise, clippable lines, support drains fast.
In a good economic climate, a government might just get by with this sort of politics by triangulation. Not when it’s raising taxes. This government now looks buffeted by events, and in recent weeks has lurched into internecine chaos. The impression is of a leader – Starmer – who is not in control, but being controlled. Any hoped-for bounce in the polls from measures to ease the cost-of-living crisis has been drowned by arguments over benefit bungs and whether the chancellor misrepresented the spending watchdog. Fifty-eight per cent of voters believe that Reeves has broken her manifesto pledge on taxation.
By contrast, Badenoch’s profile continues to rise, after she initially had to deal with a bankrupt party haemorrhaging members. Where once her directness was seen as a negative, her pugilistic approach has now been honed by an experienced new team to land knockout blows. Straight after she finished mocking the chancellor for her moaning about “mansplaining”, Badenoch was on LBC Radio, making no apologies for her “personal attack” and rolling out more effective punchlines, including: “Rachel Reeves and Keir Starmer are using our money to save their jobs.”
On the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg show, despite a plucky defence from the puffy-faced chancellor, Reeves’s explanations were too complex; she was defensive, compared with Badenoch’s calm defiance. It is the Conservative framing of the post-Budget debate, including Badenoch’s call for Reeves to resign for “misleading” the public about the supposed black hole, that is sticking.
A post-Budget YouGov poll showed that only 11 per cent think Reeves is doing a good job as chancellor, with 48 per cent saying the Budget was unfair (versus 21 per cent who saw it as fair). And overwhelmingly, people said this Budget would leave the country worse off. The last years of the Tories were marked by turmoil. The problem for this Labour government is that it promised to end that chaos. Rancorous party politics and depleting trust have led to 27 per cent of younger voters now claiming they would prefer an autocratic style of government. I don’t believe this actually equates to them yearning for a police state; instead, it reveals a longing for strong, directional leadership.
It is not surprising that alongside Badenoch’s successful autumn, Wes Streeting and the newly anointed home secretary Shabana Mahmood are enjoying a surge in popularity. The similarities between the two are clear: both are highly effective communicators who underpin their arguments with a narrative the public can easily get onside with. Mahmood’s defence of her major policy reforms on immigration was a masterclass in how to bring party and public with you. Her performance in the Commons was as punchy as anything we’ve seen from Badenoch – including her use of the “P-word”. Their rhetorical skills are an acute threat to their leader because they expose Starmer’s fustian leanings.
Was this week a breakthrough moment for Badenoch? Within her own party – yes. And she dominated headlines over Nigel Farage – which she consistently needs to – as he battles accusations of antisemitic bullying from when he was in school. But Badenoch knows it’s too soon to expect voters to trust the Conservatives again, and that is why she keeps talking up her role as leader of the opposition. The more immediate threat to Starmer may come not from her, but from the bombastic Labour orators on his own benches.
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