Firebrand South African opposition leader Julius Malema has been sentenced to five years in prison for unlawfully possessing and discharging a firearm at a political rally, in a case that could reshape the country’s political landscape and test the resilience of his party.
The ruling, delivered on Thursday in the Eastern Cape city of KuGompo, relates to a widely circulated 2018 video showing Malema firing what appeared to be an assault rifle during celebrations marking the fifth anniversary of his party, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). The court found him guilty on multiple counts, including unlawful possession of a firearm and ammunition, discharging a weapon in a public place, and reckless endangerment.
Magistrate Twanet Olivier rejected the defence’s argument that the shots were merely celebratory, stressing the seriousness of the offence, particularly given Malema’s position as a public figure. Prosecutors had argued that leniency would set a dangerous precedent in a country grappling with high levels of gun violence.
Despite the custodial sentence, Malema was granted leave to appeal and will remain free pending further legal proceedings, which could extend to the Constitutional Court. However, the court dismissed his attempt to appeal the conviction itself, affirming that he had indeed breached South Africa’s firearms laws.
The case was initiated by AfriForum, a conservative Afrikaner lobby group that has frequently clashed with Malema over his rhetoric and political conduct. AfriForum has also challenged his continued use of the anti-apartheid struggle song “Kill the Boer”, arguing that it constitutes hate speech and incites violence against white South Africans—claims repeatedly rejected by the courts.
Outside the courtroom, hundreds of EFF supporters gathered in trademark red berets, singing liberation songs and denouncing the ruling. Addressing the crowd after his release, Malema accused Magistrate Olivier of racism and alleged judicial interference, claiming that an “invisible hand” was guiding the proceedings.
The EFF, founded by Malema in 2013 after his expulsion from the ruling African National Congress, has built its identity around his charismatic and confrontational leadership style. Advocating radical policies such as land expropriation without compensation and the nationalisation of key industries, the party has cultivated strong support among younger and economically marginalised voters.
Yet the conviction poses a significant threat to both Malema’s political future and the party’s stability. Under South Africa’s constitution, any prison sentence exceeding 12 months—if upheld after appeal—would disqualify him from serving in parliament. The EFF currently holds 39 seats, having secured just under 10% of the vote in the 2024 general election.
Political analysts warn that the party’s heavy reliance on Malema’s personal appeal leaves it vulnerable in the event of his disqualification. There is no clear succession plan, raising questions about its cohesion and electoral prospects should he be forced from public office.
Malema has consistently maintained that the case is politically motivated, portraying himself as the target of a broader campaign to silence dissent. His supporters have echoed this claim, with some threatening protests if he is ultimately jailed.
In handing down the sentence, however, Magistrate Olivier emphasised the distinction between politics and the rule of law. “It is not a political party that has been convicted here,” she said, “but an individual.”
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